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Full-Scale War: Looking at Russia’s Conflict with Georgia From All Sides

Originally posted on sciy.org by Ron Anastasia on Fri 06 Oct 2006 02:05 PM PDT  

Russia Profile.org

October 6, 2006

Full-Scale War
By Alexander Arkhangelsky
Special to Russia Profile

Looking at Russia’s Conflict with Georgia From All Sides

What is going on in Georgia? Answering this question means that we have to know what is going on in Russia. But first, a substantial proviso, about comrade Mikheil Saakashvili. Well, never mind the “comrade” bit. The young chieftain has succeeded in doing something for his country: He has swept the political trash out of rebellious Batumi, driven the upstart Aslan Abashidze out of the country, and refused to allow in the frostbitten Igor Giorgadze. But the further you go, the more Saakashvili’s inadequate regime has a whiff of Gamsakhurdianism – a cheap mix of theatrical gesture, gamesmanship, pettiness, myopia, and self-obsession born of a persecution complex. The unexplained death of Zurab Zhvania, his one genuinely strong competitor; an epidemic of arrests among the opposition; continual provocation of the already excitable leaders of Abkhazia and South Ossetia; boorish behavior toward Russia cloaked in a fox’s smile; arresting suspected military officers and following through with the audacious surrounding of the Russian headquarters in Tbilisi using force of arms… all of these are links in the same chain – a chain of Saakashvili’s mistakes leading Georgia into a politically blind alley, a historical morass that I fear even NATO won’t be able to drag them out of.

And for this reason, I – as a citizen, as a spectator – would be ready to support any rationally harsh measures in answer to the Georgian provocation. Reciprocal arrests of spies (real or imagined, it doesn’t really matter) in double or even triple quantities – you give us four arrested men, we’ll kick out 12 of yours. Summon the ambassador or seek a UN Security Council resolution or at least a statement by the Secretary General. If there are suspicions that a Georgian political high-flier is conducting his financial affairs in Russia, either directly or through middlemen, then freeze his accounts and stop all payments. Not enough? Well, we can at least do these things without causing a backlash that harms ourselves. But everything that started last week and continued this week has less and less to do with the state of Georgia, and more and more to do with the state of Russia.

Embassy staff have been evacuated, as if Tbilisi were Saigon; air communications have been cut, as if Georgia were Somalia; visas are no longer being issued to anyone, even on humanitarian grounds; children of Georgian citizens have been ordered out of the Russian school at the Embassy; a casino in Moscow was suddenly discovered to belong to a Georgian criminal boss, and a Georgian cultural center to be flouting hygiene laws, while Georgian restaurants aren’t paying their taxes. Even a group of Georgian hitmen was suddenly found and arrested. All thanks to the upstart Saakashvili – if he hadn’t given the idiotic order to surround our headquarters, these killers would have continued to walk free.

Inveterate liberals take a purely humanistic view of all this: It’s a shame for the poor neighbor that we’re behaving like this; what does the well-meaning Zurab Tsereteli – who either had shares in the Kristall casino, or the right to rent it – have to do with anything? But let’s look at this frankly and soberly. The Georgians will eventually deal with their own problems. That is their affair, their worry – whether to continue to support Saakashvili, whether to refuse to do business in Russia, whether to put pressure on their politicians to be more amenable, whether to humbly beg the United States to save them. Even more absurd is to feel pity for the owners of Kristall and Golden Palace. We should look at what is going on from a different point of view, from another – pardon me – selfish position, by asking how the reaction of our chieftains to the Georgian provocation will affect our own lot; what changes it will lead to in domestic politics, and only then make our own assessment.

The most obvious – but not most important – consequence of the decisions that have been made is that the configuration of strength among the “elites” has been changed at a stroke. Those who had staked on one successor have moved over; those who bet on the other have livened up.

Their animation is not factitious, as the guarantor of the constitution immediately reminded everyone, he alone rules the roost at home, and we all know what his name is. Here I mean Putin’s double-edged statement – on the one hand, Georgian nationalism was labelled quasi-terrorism, while on the other hand Russia is continuing to withdraw its troops and close bases in accordance with the agreement. The final step on the road to a small victorious war has not been taken. And everyone is clear about whose personal decision that is.

The second consequence is also obvious, although more substantial. Georgia has only put on a show of force; Russia could apply it.

The third consequence is that a start has been made on full-scale repartition of the legal and criminal markets across the country. Feeling sorry for the Georgian mafia is a bit stupid – let them feel sorry for themselves. But, first, the clean-up of the field is indiscriminate – no-one will bother distinguishing mafia from non-mafia; peaceful Georgian traders will simply be driven out of business, or made to pay over the odds. And, secondly, in place of the cleaned-out mafia we will instantly have a spotless, transparent, conscientious market system! But we all know that’s not going to happen. There will be a new redistribution of settled spheres of influence. The authorities will push out the Georgians; and Azeri or Chechen groups will start competing for their place. Blood will be shed. Not ours, of course, but that of the gangsters. But bloodshed is always a good excuse for the siloviki to entrench their positions.

Finally, the fourth consequence. The hardest one of all. The country is already in a sweat. It genuinely believes that everything is going fine, that the people and the party are one – but all around it sees disorder, and subconsciously is looking for an embodiment of those responsible for its own ills. This is happening without any help from Georgia, but mass political, police and military hysteria over the Georgian actions is affecting smouldering tensions, like throwing alcohol on hot coals. It exploded in Kondopoga, long before any evacuation. Now the risk level has risen exponentially. We are continually told about the Orange threat level, but it’s long past time to raise it to Brown.

To repeat – personally, I don’t really care how Georgia deals with its own problems. What is important is how we deal with ours – how the disproportionate reaction to Saakashvili’s lunacy affects the balance of power in Russia.

Alexander Arkhangelsky is a columnist for Izvestia. He contributed this comment to RIA Novosti, where it first appeared.

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