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Originally posted on sciy.org by Ron Anastasia on Fri 21 Mar 2008 01:48 PM PDT  

Report on Global Demographic Shifts

Paul Alois, February 2007

In the last two centuries the human population has increased at an exponential rate. Historically, humans have had high death rates coupled with high birthrates, resulting in a very low net increase in total population. Between 0 AD and 1800 AD the total number of people on the planet only increased by 325%, from 300 million to 980 million.[1] In the two hundred years since the total number of people on the planet has increased by 670%, and today there are over 6.5 billion people on the Earth. The advent of vaccinations, hygiene, refrigeration, medical science, and numerous other modern inventions dramatically increased life expectancy and decreased infant mortality. Furthermore, most projections suggest that by 2050 the global population will be at over 9 billion.

With astronomical numbers like these being widely cited in the media, the emergence of a new demographic trend has largely been ignored. Today, worldwide fertility rates are at an all time low, and in the decades following 2050 the global population is actually expected to stabilize and possibly decrease. The two factors driving this new pattern are the emergence of women’s rights on a global scale and the expectation among parents that all their children will survive to maturity.

Fertility rates, the best indicators of long term population changes, refer to the average number of children a woman will have. In order for a given population to replace itself, its fertility rate must be at 2.1 or higher. Graph 1[2] illustrates the decline of fertility rates that has occurred in the last fifty years, and shows projections for the next fifty years.

Furthermore, between 2005 and 2050 the median age of the global population is expected to increase from 28 to 39. Graph 2[3] shows projected changes in median age by region.

 
Graph 3 shows 2006 fertility rates by region, cross-referenced with the percentage of the global population in that region in order to illustrate the textured nature of demographic changes.

• Asia has the most bipolar fertility rates of all the world’s regions. The developing countries in Asia, lead by India, will maintain relatively high fertility rates into the next several decades. The developed countries in Asia, however, have the lowest fertility rates in the world.

• Although China is a developing country, its policy of limiting family size has given it very low fertility rates for several decades. China is already seeing an increasing number of retirees even as the number of available workers declines.[4] Due to its poorly developed economy, China is far less able to manage these changes than developed countries.

• Africa currently has the highest fertility rates in the world. Sub-Saharan Africa also faces staggeringly high rates of HIV-AIDS, TB, and malaria. In areas with high mortality rates women are inclined to have as many children as possible, as it ensures that enough children will survive to maturity. The North African nations, populated by ethnic Arabs, have much lower fertility rates that more closely mirror trends in the Middle East.

• Europe as a whole has the lowest fertility rates in the world. Even with immigration Europe’s population is expected to decrease in the coming decades. Eastern Europe and Russia have the lowest fertility rates in the region, even as lose their adult population via emigration to Western and Northern Europe.

• Latin America and the Caribbean are barely maintaining replacement levels. By 2050, Mexico will have an older median age than the United States.

• In North America, Canada has a fertility rate of 1.5. The United States is the only developed country in the world where fertility rates will remain stable over the next fifty years, and the population will actually increase as a result of relatively high immigration. However, among native born women fertility rates are slightly below replacement levels, so the ethnic makeup of the United States will change substantially.

• In Oceania, Australia and New Zealand have fertility rates of 1.75 and 2.0 respectively.

As the world continues to have fewer children, and median ages continue to rise, enormous adjustments will have to take place on a society wide basis.

• Most social security systems in the developed world were created when the ratio of workers to retirees was 5:1 or higher. In many places today that ratio has decreased to 3:1, straining these systems. Coming demographic shifts will further exacerbate this trend, and in the near future these social security programs will likely become untenable.

• Economic growth will be jeopardized by a dearth of new workers. According to Harvard economist Alvin Hansen three things drive economic growth: population increases, new resource exploitation, and technological innovation. With population decline a foregone conclusion in the developed world and resource depletion becoming a serious problem, technological innovation alone will have to drive the global economy. If it is unable to do so, an economic model predicated on perpetual growth may be unsustainable.

• The developed countries in Europe, North America, and Asia will likely begin seeing more racial and ethnic tension. Not only do these countries have high immigration, but immigrant communities in these countries have far more children than native communities. As evidenced by recent rioting in France, the children of immigrants often grow up feeling isolated from their parent’s culture as well as the culture they find themselves living in. Furthermore, these non-native children will likely be subjected to extremely high taxes to support retirees that are mainly of the native ethnicity, creating tension along generational lines as well.

• An aging population will further stress the world’s medical systems. In the United States, the government program covering retirees already pays out an average of $9,000 per person every year.[5] In the socialized systems of Europe and the UK, waiting lines for major operations can be months or even years long. The historical medical paradigm has emphasized attacking disease rather than promoting health, so many retirees today are suffering from decades of poor information regarding diet, exercise, and other habits. In the coming years more energy may be put into researching new ways to maintain good health, and governments may begin taxing or restricting goods that damage health.

In the coming century one of the greatest problems facing human beings is the question of how to redesign social, economic, and political institutions to adapt to this new world. The systems currently in place were designed in a world where perpetual population growth was considered to be inevitable, and as the global population begins to decline these systems will literally fall apart. While a decreasing population has the potential to be an enormously positive development, the challenge is creating a world where it can be.

This article may be reprinted or copied for non-commercial purposes as long as proper citation standards are observed.

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[5]https://www.cms.hhs.gov/CFOReport/Downloads/2006_CMS_Financial_Report.pdf

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