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The end of the world as we knew it is upon us
Originally posted on sciy.org by Ron Anastasia on Mon 02 Jun 2008 02:00 AM PDT
Thanks to my architect friend Terrence Glassman for forwarding this article to me. ~ ronjon
The end of the world as we knew it is upon us
Dr. Lloyd V. Stover
Guest commentary
The oil age began in 1860. By 2006 the world¹s oil rigs pumped oil at a rate of 85 million barrels a day. They haven¹t come close since, even as prices have risen to more than $100 per barrel.
Breaking our fossil fuel dependency will require plugging into the grid instead of pulling up to the pump. And there are some interesting energy options and others are doing a lot more about developing them than Americans.
Germany leads the world in its installed capacity of renewable energy sources (25 percent), and is the third largest producer of solar panels after China and Japan.
The share of electricity generated from renewable sources exceeded 14 percent in 2007, an increase from 11 percent in 2006. This means that Germany has already met the European Union¹s target that 12.5 percent of electricity should come from renewable sources by 2010.
Enercon, a major wind equipment maker, claims that the renewable-energy business will become a major part of the country¹s manufacturing business, alongside cars and machine tools. Employment in the renewables industry is now 250,000 ands expected to double by 2020. Throughout Germany, around 160 technical institutions are doing research on alternative energy.
Ireland has a created a unique research and development center at the Dundalk Institute of Technology. The project is part of a European Union program to encourage clean energy projects. The others are in Austria and Switzerland. By 2010 solar and wind energy will account for 20 percent of the heat and electricity for the city, industrial park and college. They also plan to install self-powered streetlights, as is being planned in China.
Denmark is already generating 20 percent of its electricity by renewable resources. Even though our standard of living is relatively the same, the average American consumes nearly three times as much energy as the average Dane. And the per capita greenhouse gas emission is more than double in America.
American efforts
What are we doing about it? This year wind farms will generate more than 1 percent of our electricity. The industry grew 45 percent last year. If present trends continue wind could provide 20 percent of our power by 2020.
American solar industry grew nearly 60 percent last year. Wal-Mart and Google made headlines by their plans for solar installations on their facilities. California accounts for a third of the demand for solar and has a stated goal of solar cells on over a million roofs by 2020. Cities provide subsidies from $3,000 for homes and $10,000 for businesses.
Within five years nano-engineered materials should make solar panels lighter, more efficient and cheaper. This should make them able to power homes and make hydrogen fuel cells available for our cars.
Two solar thermal power plants, one in Spain and the other in Nevada, have been operating for a year. They use large mirrors to concentrate solar power and generate steam to run turbines that generate electricity. The advantage is that the solar plant can provide power round the clock, by storing energy in the form of molten salt or compressed air.
Eight additional solar thermal plants are under construction in Spain, Algeria and Morocco and nine others are in various stages of design in Israel, Mexico, China and South Africa.
Wind power
Installed wind capacity in the United States grew 45 percent last year, and a comparable increase is expected this year. It already supplies 1 percent of America¹s electricity. More than $9 billion was invested last year.
In 2006 Texas surpassed California by generating 3 percent of its electricity from wind power, enough to supply power to a million homes. Texas has approved upgraded transmission lines and anticipates five times the wind power generated in the state today. One of the anticipated wind farms will become the biggest in the world, and will cost more than $10 billion.
Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota and Oregon already get more than 5 percent of their power from wind farms.
The beginning of the end of the oil crisis is upon us, and with foresight we will be able to cope with it to our and the planet¹s benefit.
In time we will be able to look back at high oil prices that motivated us to take advantage of conservation and alternative energy. We are fortunate that the energy issues of the future are no longer essentially geological, as they are technical, financial and political. Now innovation, creativity, and the desire to improve the well-being of our planet and its inhabitants, human and otherwise.
Dr. Lloyd V. Stover is an environmental scientist who assisted in the development of President Carter¹s energy proposals during the 1970s.
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