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The Shadow Government Statistics Newsletter

Originally posted on sciy.org by Ron Anastasia on Mon 11 Aug 2008 08:00 AM PDT  

John
Williams'
Shadow Government Statistics
Analysis Behind and Beyond Government Economic Reporting

Alternate CPI Chart
Have you ever wondered why the CPI, GDP and employment numbers run counter to your personal and business experiences? 
The problem lies in biased and often-manipulated government reporting.

We offer an exposé of the problems within the reporting system, and an assessment of underlying economic reality, through two basic services:

Specialized economic consulting services including customized forecasts and analyses of the general economy, as well as for specific industry, product or company results. (contact us to discuss your needs);

Subscribe
Now
One Year
$175.00
Six Months
$89.00
The Shadow Government Statistics Newsletter

Subscription includes access to all back issues 
and SGS Alternate Data Series.

"John Williams' Shadow Government Statistics" is an electronic newsletter that exposes and analyzes the flaws in current U.S. government economic data and reporting, as well as in certain private-sector numbers, and provides an assessment of underlying economic conditions, net of financial-market hype .

• Published 11 to 12 times per year, the newsletter is supplemented by occasional Special Issues and by  interim "Flash Updates" and "Alerts" that cover key economic reports and highlight unusual developments. (See "Newsletter Coverage" below for the publication's regular scope of coverage.)

• Subscription service provides website access to current and archived content, data on proprietary alternate estimates of the CPI, Unemployment and the GDP, an ongoing estimate of M3 growth -- where the M3 series no longer is reported by the Federal Reserve -- and a financial-weighted index of the U.S. dollar. Also available is an inflation calculator that estimates comparative prices between any two months, 1913 to date, using both the official CPI and the SGS-alternate measure. Postings to the website of all new material are advised directly to subscribers by e-mail.

Payment Methods We accept payment by either check or credit card. For credit-card payments, we use PayPal as our processor. (You need not have a PayPal account to use this vehicle.) All amounts due are payable in U.S. dollars.

Newsletter Coverage The newsletter includes regular coverage and analysis of the economy and the broad financial markets:

  • "Opening Comments" provides an overview of current economic and financial-market conditions and developments.
  • The "Reporting Focus" section covers the prior month's economic reporting (employment/unemployment, CPI, GDP, money supply, retail sales, housing statistics, factory orders, trade balance, consumer confidence, purchasing managers' survey, short-term credit measures, federal budget deficit and others), including estimates of actual results net of any reporting biases. Also provided are annual reviews of the U.S. government's GAAP-based financial statements and estimates of income variance.
  • Further, the coming month's reporting is examined, highlighting unusual circumstances and biases that could bring results in above or below market expectations.
  • The "Markets Focus" section assesses circumstances in the U.S. equity and credit markets, as well circumstances as they relate to the U.S. dollar and gold markets.
  • The "Reporting/Market Focus" details the background of government series or special items affecting the markets, along with updates to changes in reporting methodologies.
  • The newsletter is supplemented by frequent Flash Updates and occasional interim Special Issues/Alerts that highlight unusual developments or topics of special interest.

Examples of past Newsletters, Flash Updates and Alerts are open to non-subscribers on this Archives page.  Look in the right-hand column for "open" material.

We like to gain some firsthand knowledge about our subscribers in the belief that, over time, this helps a great deal in fashioning services that are most suited and responsive to client needs. To further this goal, subscribers are invited to have direct phone or e-mail communication with John Williams during the term of the subscription. We look forward to serving you and hope you will subscribe today!

Some Biographical & Additional Background Information

Walter J. "John" Williams was born in 1949. He received an A.B. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a M.B.A. from Dartmouth's Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in 1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. During his career as a consulting economist, John has worked with individuals as well as Fortune 500 companies.

Formally known as Walter J. Williams, my friends call me John. For more than 25 years, I have been a private consulting economist and, out of necessity, had to become a specialist in government economic reporting.

One of my early clients was a large manufacturer of commercial airplanes, who had developed an econometric model for predicting revenue passenger miles. The level of revenue passenger miles was their primary sales forecasting tool, and the model was heavily dependent on the GNP (now GDP) as reported by the Department of Commerce. Suddenly, their model stopped working, and they asked me if I could fix it. I realized the GNP numbers were faulty, corrected them for my client (official reporting was similarly revised a couple of years later) and the model worked again, at least for a while, until GNP methodological changes eventually made the underlying data worthless.

That began a lengthy process of exploring the history and nature of economic reporting and in interviewing key people involved in the process from the early days of government reporting through the present. For a number of years I conducted surveys among business economists as to the quality of government statistics (the vast majority thought it was pretty bad), and my results led to front page stories in the New York Times and Investors Business Daily, considerable coverage in the broadcast media and a joint meeting with representatives of all the government's statistical agencies. Despite minor changes to the system, government reporting has deteriorated sharply in the last decade or so. -- John Williams

Alternate Data Money Supply, M3 Chart
Charts of Historical Alternate Data for the U.S. GDP, CPI, M3 & Employment.

Data downloads for subscribers.
Primers on Government Economic Reports
What you've suspected but were afraid to ask.
1. Series Master Introduction
2. Employment and Unemployment Reporting
3. Federal Deficit Reality
4. Consumer Price Index
5. Gross Domestic Product
Reporting/Market Focus
Various economic and financial-market series are examined and explained.
Updates of Primer Series plus Housing, Durable Goods Orders, PPI, Money Supply, Income Variance, Retail Sales, etc.
Special Report
Hyperinflation
Latest Commentaries
Special Report: Money Supply Subscruption required August 3rd, 2008
• Excess supply of a commodity or product usually is reflected in downside pressure on its price, and the same is true for money.  More ...
Flash Update Subscruption required August 1st, 2008
• July Payrolls Sink Year-to-Year • Broad Unemployment Rate Surges to 10.3% from 9.9% (SGS 14.3%) • Concurrent Seasonal Factor Bias Flips More ...
Flash Update Subscruption required July 31st, 2008
• GDP Report is Political Garbage • Lowest GDP Inflation in 10 Years Generates Strong Growth Report • Downward Revisions Put 4th-Quarter in Contraction More ...
Flash Update Subscruption required July 30th, 2008
• Systemic Instability Continues • Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence Show No Turnaround • Pending Nonsensical GDP Growth Surge? More ...
House Financial Services Hearing July 28th, 2008
John Williams gave testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on July 24th.  More ...
Flash Update Subscruption required July 22nd, 2008
• Special Note to Subscribers: Congressional Testimony • Broad Money Growth Remains Inflationary • Deepening Recession Should Be Evident in Pending Payrolls, New Orders • No Recession per GDP Expectations, But ... More ...
Flash Update Subscruption required July 16th, 2008
• Dire Implications for U.S. Markets, U.S. Budget Deficit • Annual CPI-U Surges to 5.0% (SGS 12.6%) • "Core" Inflation Numbers Not Believable • Retail Sales and Industrial Production in Sharp Quarterly Contractions More ...
Flash Update Subscruption required July 15th, 2008
• "Core" June Retail Sales Fell 0.7% versus 0.1% Reported Total Gain • Tax Rebate Benefit Evaporates • June PPI Gain of 1.8% Remained Well Shy of Reality More ...
Flash Update Subscruption required July 10th, 2008
• Spike in Annual Inflation Due Next Week • The Problem Remains Inflation, Not Deflation • Monetary Theory and Limits of Hard Data  More ...
Flash Update Subscruption required July 3rd, 2008
• June Payrolls Turned Negative Year-to-Year • Monthly Payrolls Dropped by 147,000 Net of Concurrent Seasonal Adjustment Bias • Broadest Unemployment Rate Jumps by 0.2% • Purchasing Managers Manufacturing Index "Gain" Due to Reweightings  More ...
Flash Update Subscruption required June 30th, 2008
• Abysmal Business Data Continue • Unprecedented Plunges in Consumer Confidence Measures • Good Time for the Rest of the World to Dump the Dollar  More ...
Flash Update Subscruption required June 22nd, 2008
• Industrial Production Contracts Year-to-Year • Housing Starts in Steepest Annual Decline since Depths of 1990/1991 Recession • No Signs of Abatement in Inflationary Recession  More ...
Flash Update Subscruption required June 13th, 2008
• Annual Inflation Surge Begins (4.2% BLS, 11.8% SGS-Alternate) • Monthly Inflation Still Understated • General Outlook Unchanged  More ...
Flash Update Subscruption required June 12th, 2008
• Core Retail Sales Up 0.86% • Unusual Revisions and Seasonal Factors in Data  More ...
Archives

John Williams'
"Shadow Government Statistics"

P.O. Box 16121, Oakland, CA 94610
johnwilliams@shadowstats.com



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