Have you ever wondered why the CPI, GDP and employment numbers run counter to your personal and business experiences? The problem lies in biased and often-manipulated government reporting.
We offer an exposé of the problems within the
reporting system, and an assessment of underlying economic reality,
through two basic services:
Specialized economic consulting services
including customized forecasts and analyses of the general economy, as
well as for specific industry, product or company results. (c ontact us to discuss your needs);
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The Shadow Government Statistics Newsletter
Subscription includes access to all back issues
and SGS Alternate Data Series.
"John Williams' Shadow Government Statistics"
is an electronic newsletter that exposes and analyzes the flaws in
current U.S. government economic data and reporting, as well as in
certain private-sector numbers, and provides an assessment of
underlying economic conditions, net of financial-market hype .
• Published 11 to 12 times per year, the newsletter is supplemented
by occasional Special Issues and by interim "Flash Updates" and
"Alerts" that cover key economic reports and highlight unusual
developments. (See "Newsletter Coverage" below for the publication's
regular scope of coverage.)
• Subscription service provides website access to current and
archived content, data on proprietary alternate estimates of the CPI,
Unemployment and the GDP, an ongoing estimate of M3 growth -- where the
M3 series no longer is reported by the Federal Reserve -- and a
financial-weighted index of the U.S. dollar. Also available is an
inflation calculator that estimates comparative prices between any two
months, 1913 to date, using both the official CPI and the SGS-alternate
measure. Postings to the website of all new material are advised
directly to subscribers by e-mail.
Payment Methods We accept payment by either check
or credit card. For credit-card payments, we use PayPal as our
processor. (You need not have a PayPal account to use this vehicle.)
All amounts due are payable in U.S. dollars.
Newsletter Coverage The newsletter includes regular coverage and analysis of the economy and the broad financial markets:
- "Opening Comments" provides an overview of current economic and financial-market conditions and developments.
- The
"Reporting Focus" section covers the prior month's economic reporting
(employment/unemployment, CPI, GDP, money supply, retail sales, housing
statistics, factory orders, trade balance, consumer confidence,
purchasing managers' survey, short-term credit measures, federal budget
deficit and others), including estimates of actual results net of any
reporting biases. Also provided are annual reviews of the U.S.
government's GAAP-based financial statements and estimates of income
variance.
- Further, the coming month's reporting is
examined, highlighting unusual circumstances and biases that could
bring results in above or below market expectations.
- The
"Markets Focus" section assesses circumstances in the U.S. equity and
credit markets, as well circumstances as they relate to the U.S. dollar
and gold markets.
- The "Reporting/Market Focus" details the
background of government series or special items affecting the markets,
along with updates to changes in reporting methodologies.
- The
newsletter is supplemented by frequent Flash Updates and occasional
interim Special Issues/Alerts that highlight unusual developments or
topics of special interest.
Examples of past Newsletters, Flash Updates and Alerts are open to non-subscribers on this Archives page. Look in the right-hand column for "open" material.
We like to gain some firsthand knowledge about our subscribers in
the belief that, over time, this helps a great deal in fashioning
services that are most suited and responsive to client needs. To
further this goal, subscribers are invited to have direct phone or
e-mail communication with John Williams during the term of the
subscription. We look forward to serving you and hope you will subscribe today!
Some Biographical & Additional Background Information
Walter J. "John" Williams was born in 1949. He received an A.B. in
Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a
M.B.A. from Dartmouth's Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in
1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. During his career as a
consulting economist, John has worked with individuals as well as
Fortune 500 companies.
Formally known as Walter J. Williams, my friends call me John. For more
than 25 years, I have been a private consulting economist and, out of
necessity, had to become a specialist in government economic reporting.
One of my early clients was a large manufacturer of commercial
airplanes, who had developed an econometric model for predicting
revenue passenger miles. The level of revenue passenger miles was their
primary sales forecasting tool, and the model was heavily dependent on
the GNP (now GDP) as reported by the Department of Commerce. Suddenly,
their model stopped working, and they asked me if I could fix it. I
realized the GNP numbers were faulty, corrected them for my client
(official reporting was similarly revised a couple of years later) and
the model worked again, at least for a while, until GNP methodological
changes eventually made the underlying data worthless.
That began a lengthy process of exploring the history and nature of
economic reporting and in interviewing key people involved in the
process from the early days of government reporting through the
present. For a number of years I conducted surveys among business
economists as to the quality of government statistics (the vast
majority thought it was pretty bad), and my results led to front page
stories in the New York Times and Investors Business Daily,
considerable coverage in the broadcast media and a joint meeting with
representatives of all the government's statistical agencies. Despite
minor changes to the system, government reporting has deteriorated
sharply in the last decade or so. -- John Williams
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Alternate Data |
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Charts of Historical Alternate Data for the U.S. GDP, CPI, M3 & Employment.
Data downloads for subscribers.
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Latest Commentaries
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Special Report: Money Supply
August 3rd, 2008
•
Excess supply of a commodity or product usually is reflected in
downside pressure on its price, and the same is true for money. More ...
Flash Update
August 1st, 2008
• July Payrolls Sink Year-to-Year
• Broad Unemployment Rate Surges to 10.3% from 9.9% (SGS 14.3%)
• Concurrent Seasonal Factor Bias Flips More ...
Flash Update
July 31st, 2008
• GDP Report is Political Garbage
• Lowest GDP Inflation in 10 Years Generates Strong Growth Report
• Downward Revisions Put 4th-Quarter in Contraction More ...
Flash Update
July 30th, 2008
• Systemic Instability Continues
• Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence Show No Turnaround
• Pending Nonsensical GDP Growth Surge? More ...
House Financial Services Hearing
July 28th, 2008
John Williams gave testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on July 24th. More ...
Flash Update
July 22nd, 2008
• Special Note to Subscribers: Congressional Testimony
• Broad Money Growth Remains Inflationary
• Deepening Recession Should Be Evident in Pending Payrolls, New Orders
• No Recession per GDP Expectations, But ... More ...
Flash Update
July 16th, 2008
• Dire Implications for U.S. Markets, U.S. Budget Deficit
• Annual CPI-U Surges to 5.0% (SGS 12.6%)
• "Core" Inflation Numbers Not Believable
• Retail Sales and Industrial Production in Sharp Quarterly Contractions More ...
Flash Update
July 15th, 2008
• "Core" June Retail Sales Fell 0.7% versus 0.1% Reported Total Gain
• Tax Rebate Benefit Evaporates
• June PPI Gain of 1.8% Remained Well Shy of Reality More ...
Flash Update
July 10th, 2008
• Spike in Annual Inflation Due Next Week
• The Problem Remains Inflation, Not Deflation
• Monetary Theory and Limits of Hard Data
More ...
Flash Update
July 3rd, 2008
• June Payrolls Turned Negative Year-to-Year
• Monthly Payrolls Dropped by 147,000 Net of Concurrent Seasonal Adjustment Bias
• Broadest Unemployment Rate Jumps by 0.2%
• Purchasing Managers Manufacturing Index "Gain" Due to Reweightings
More ...
Flash Update
June 30th, 2008
• Abysmal Business Data Continue
• Unprecedented Plunges in Consumer Confidence Measures
• Good Time for the Rest of the World to Dump the Dollar
More ...
Flash Update
June 22nd, 2008
• Industrial Production Contracts Year-to-Year
• Housing Starts in Steepest Annual Decline since Depths of 1990/1991 Recession
• No Signs of Abatement in Inflationary Recession
More ...
Flash Update
June 13th, 2008
• Annual Inflation Surge Begins (4.2% BLS, 11.8% SGS-Alternate)
• Monthly Inflation Still Understated
• General Outlook Unchanged
More ...
Flash Update
June 12th, 2008
• Core Retail Sales Up 0.86%
• Unusual Revisions and Seasonal Factors in Data
More ...
Archives
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