Originally posted on sciy.org by Rich Carlson on Thu 17 Apr 2008 08:32 AM PDT
Edward Lorenz, father of chaos theory and butterfly effect, dies at 90
April 16, 2008.
Edward Lorenz, an MIT meteorologist who tried to explain why
it is so hard to make good weather forecasts and wound up unleashing a
scientific revolution called chaos theory, died on April 16 of cancer at
his home in Cambridge. He was 90.
A professor at MIT, Lorenz was
the first to recognize what is now called chaotic behavior in the
mathematical modeling of weather systems. In the early 1960s, Lorenz
realized that small differences in a dynamic system such as the
atmosphere--or a model of the atmosphere--could trigger vast and often
unsuspected results. These observations ultimately led him to
formulate what became known as the butterfly effect--a term that grew
out of an academic paper he presented in 1972 entitled:
"Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterfly's Wings in Brazil Set Off
a Tornado in Texas?
"Lorenz's early insights marked the beginning
of a new field of study that impacted not just the field of mathematics
but virtually every branch of science--biological, physical and social.
In meteorology, it led to the conclusion that it may be fundamentally
impossible to predict weather beyond two or three weeks with a
reasonable degree of accuracy. Some scientists have since
asserted that the 20th century will be remembered for three scientific
revolutions--relativity, quantum mechanics and chaos.
"By
showing that certain deterministic systems have formal predictability
limits, Ed put the last nail in the coffin of the Cartesian universe
and fomented what some have called the third scientific revolution of
the 20th century, following on the heels of relativity and quantum
physics," said Kerry Emanuel professor of atmospheric science at MIT.
"He was also a perfect gentleman, and through his intelligence,
integrity and humility set a very high standard for his and succeeding
generations."
Born in 1917 in West Hartford, Conn., Lorenz
received an AB in mathematics from Dartmouth College in 1938, an AM in
mathematics from Harvard University in 1940, an SM in meteorology from
MIT in 1943 and an ScD in meteorology from MIT in 1948. It was while
serving as a weather forecaster for the U.S. Army Air Corps in World
War II that he decided to do graduate work in meteorology at MIT.
"As
a boy I was always interested in doing things with numbers, and was
also fascinated by changes in the weather," Lorenz wrote in an
autobiographical sketch. Lorenz was a member of the staff of what
was then MIT's Department of Meteorology from 1948 to 1955, when he was
appointed to the faculty as an assistant professor. He was promoted to
professor in 1962 and was head of the department from 1977 to 1981. He
became an emeritus professor in 1987. Lorenz, who was elected
to the National Academy of Sciences in 1975, won numerous awards,
honors and honorary degrees. In 1983, he and former MIT Professor Henry
M. Stommel were jointly awarded the $50,000 Crafoord Prize by the Royal
Swedish Academy of Sciences, a prize established to recognize fields
not eligible for Nobel Prizes.
In 1991, he was awarded the
Kyoto Prize for basic sciences in the field of earth and planetary
sciences. Lorenz was cited by the Kyoto Prize committee for
establishing "the theoretical basis of weather and climate
predictability, as well as the basis for computer-aided atmospheric
physics and meteorology." The committee added that Lorenz "made his
boldest scientific achievement in discovering 'deterministic chaos,' a
principle which has profoundly influenced a wide range of basic
sciences and brought about one of the most dramatic changes in
mankind's view of nature since Sir Isaac Newton."
During leaves
of absence from MIT, he held research or teaching positions at the
Lowell Observatory in Flagstaff, Ariz.; the Department of Meteorology
at the University of California at Los Angeles; the Det Norske
Meteorologiske Insitutt in Oslo, Norway; and the National Center for
Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. An avid hiker and cross-country skier, Lorenz was active up until about two weeks before his death, his family said. Lorenz is survived by three children, Nancy, Edward and Cheryl, and four grandchildren. A memorial service will be held at 3 p.m. Sunday, April 20, at the Swedenborg Chapel,
50 Quincy St., Cambridge. The MIT News Office will update this announcement as more
details become available.
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